Projected changes in solar PV and wind energy potential over West Africa: an analysis of CORDEX-CORE simulations

  • Renewable energy development is growing fast and is expected to expand in the next decades in West Africa as a contribution to addressing the power demand and climate change mitigation. However, the future impacts of climate change on solar PV and the wind energy potential in the region are still unclear. This study investigates the expected future impacts of climate change on solar PV and wind energy potential over West Africa using an ensemble of three regional climate models (RCMs). Each RCM is driven by three global climate models (GCMs) from the new coordinated high-resolution output for regional evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Two projection periods were used: the near future (2021–2050) and the far future (2071–2100). For the model evaluation, reanalysis data from ERA5 and satellite-based climate data (SARAH-2) were used. The models and their ensemble mean (hereafter Mean) show acceptable performance for the simulations of the solar PV potential, the windRenewable energy development is growing fast and is expected to expand in the next decades in West Africa as a contribution to addressing the power demand and climate change mitigation. However, the future impacts of climate change on solar PV and the wind energy potential in the region are still unclear. This study investigates the expected future impacts of climate change on solar PV and wind energy potential over West Africa using an ensemble of three regional climate models (RCMs). Each RCM is driven by three global climate models (GCMs) from the new coordinated high-resolution output for regional evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Two projection periods were used: the near future (2021–2050) and the far future (2071–2100). For the model evaluation, reanalysis data from ERA5 and satellite-based climate data (SARAH-2) were used. The models and their ensemble mean (hereafter Mean) show acceptable performance for the simulations of the solar PV potential, the wind power density, and related variables with some biases. The Mean predicts a general decrease in the solar PV potential over the region of about −2% in the near future and −4% in the far future. The wind power density (WPD) is expected to increase by about 20% in the near future and 40% in the far future. The changes for solar PV potential seem to be consistent, although the intensity differs according to the RCM used. For the WPD, there are some discrepancies among the RCMs in terms of intensity and direction. This study can guide governments and policymakers in decision making for future solar and wind energy projects in the region.show moreshow less

Download full text files

Export metadata

Statistics

Number of document requests

Additional Services

Share in Twitter Search Google Scholar
Metadaten
Author:Aissatou Ndiaye, Mounkaila Saley Moussa, Cheikh Dione, Windmanagda SawadogoORCiDGND, Jan BliefernichtORCiDGND, Laouali Dungall, Harald KunstmannORCiDGND
URN:urn:nbn:de:bvb:384-opus4-1013212
Frontdoor URLhttps://opus.bibliothek.uni-augsburg.de/opus4/101321
ISSN:1996-1073OPAC
Parent Title (English):Energies
Publisher:MDPI AG
Place of publication:Basel
Type:Article
Language:English
Year of first Publication:2022
Publishing Institution:Universität Augsburg
Release Date:2023/01/30
Tag:Energy (miscellaneous); Energy Engineering and Power Technology; Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment; Electrical and Electronic Engineering; Control and Optimization; Engineering (miscellaneous); Building and Construction
Volume:15
Issue:24
First Page:9602
DOI:https://doi.org/10.3390/en15249602
Institutes:Fakultät für Angewandte Informatik
Fakultät für Angewandte Informatik / Institut für Geographie
Fakultät für Angewandte Informatik / Institut für Geographie / Lehrstuhl für Regionales Klima und Hydrologie
Nachhaltigkeitsziele
Nachhaltigkeitsziele / Ziel 7 - Bezahlbare und saubere Energie
Nachhaltigkeitsziele / Ziel 13 - Maßnahmen zum Klimaschutz
Dewey Decimal Classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften
Licence (German):CC-BY 4.0: Creative Commons: Namensnennung (mit Print on Demand)