Open Access

Zekeriya Aktürk, Memet Işık

• Introduction: While European average of physicians per 1000 citizens is around 3.4, this ratio is 1.7 for Turkey, showing a lack of physician workforce. On the other hand, the number of first year medical students increased from 6492 in 2008 to 8453 in the year 2012. Proper needs planning and appropriate actions are of utmost importance in order to ensure the best possible quality and quantity of medical doctors in Turkey. Aim: In this study we aimed to make a projection plan for the next two decades, with regard to the number of medical students and expected number of graduates and tried to propose rational student enrollment quotas. Methods: Number of medical students enrolled each year, number of yearly graduates from medical faculties, number of family medicine trainers, trainees, new residency positions, ratio of graduates expected to join primary care, and proportion of doctors leaving the practice were taken into consideration during the calculations. Results andIntroduction: While European average of physicians per 1000 citizens is around 3.4, this ratio is 1.7 for Turkey, showing a lack of physician workforce. On the other hand, the number of first year medical students increased from 6492 in 2008 to 8453 in the year 2012. Proper needs planning and appropriate actions are of utmost importance in order to ensure the best possible quality and quantity of medical doctors in Turkey. Aim: In this study we aimed to make a projection plan for the next two decades, with regard to the number of medical students and expected number of graduates and tried to propose rational student enrollment quotas. Methods: Number of medical students enrolled each year, number of yearly graduates from medical faculties, number of family medicine trainers, trainees, new residency positions, ratio of graduates expected to join primary care, and proportion of doctors leaving the practice were taken into consideration during the calculations. Results and Discussion: We expect to have 36793 doctors in the primary care by the year 2019. This will change the population / family physician ratio from 3653 to 2201. However, also the mean number of visits per capita in Turkey has an increasing trend (3.2 in 2002 – 8.2 in 2012), which should be taken into consideration when planning the need for doctor workforce. Conclusion: The rapid increase in the number of medical graduates must urgently be revised and adjusted to a number enough to maintain continuous physician need in Turkey. Years 2013 and thus 2019 will be critical.…