Global rangeland production systems and livelihoods at threat under climate change and variability

  • Rangelands are one of the Earth's major ice-free land cover types. They provide food and support livelihoods for millions of people in addition to delivering important ecosystems services. However, rangelands are at threat from climate change, although the extent and magnitude of the potential impacts are poorly understood. Any declines in vegetation biomass and fluctuations in grazing availability would be of concern for food production and ecosystem integrity and functionality. In this study, we use a global rangeland model in combination with livestock and socio-economic datasets to identify where and to what extent rangeland systems may be at climatic risk. Overall, mean herbaceous biomass is projected to decrease across global rangelands between 2000 and 2050 under RCP 8.5 (−4.7%), while inter- (year-to-year) and intra- (month-to-month) annual variabilities are projected to increase (+21.3% and +8.2%, respectively). These averaged global estimates mask large spatialRangelands are one of the Earth's major ice-free land cover types. They provide food and support livelihoods for millions of people in addition to delivering important ecosystems services. However, rangelands are at threat from climate change, although the extent and magnitude of the potential impacts are poorly understood. Any declines in vegetation biomass and fluctuations in grazing availability would be of concern for food production and ecosystem integrity and functionality. In this study, we use a global rangeland model in combination with livestock and socio-economic datasets to identify where and to what extent rangeland systems may be at climatic risk. Overall, mean herbaceous biomass is projected to decrease across global rangelands between 2000 and 2050 under RCP 8.5 (−4.7%), while inter- (year-to-year) and intra- (month-to-month) annual variabilities are projected to increase (+21.3% and +8.2%, respectively). These averaged global estimates mask large spatial heterogeneities, with 74% of global rangeland area projected to experience a decline in mean biomass, 64% an increase in inter-annual variability and 54% an increase in intra-annual variability. Half of global rangeland areas are projected to experience simultaneously a decrease in mean biomass and an increase in inter-annual variability—vegetation trends both potentially harmful for livestock production. These regions include notably the Sahel, Australia, Mongolia, China, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan and support 376 million people and 174 million ruminant Tropical Livestock Units. Additionally, the rangeland communities currently the most vulnerable (here, with the lowest livestock productivities and economic development levels and with the highest projected increases in human population densities) are projected to also experience the most damaging vegetation trends for livestock production. Although the capacity of rangeland systems to adapt is highly complex, analyses such as these generate some of the information required to inform options to facilitate pastoral system mitigation and adaptation strategies under climate change.show moreshow less

Download full text files

Export metadata

Statistics

Number of document requests

Additional Services

Share in Twitter Search Google Scholar
Metadaten
Author:Cécile M. GoddeORCiD, Randall B. BooneORCiD, Andrew J. AshORCiD, Katharina WahaORCiDGND, Lindsey L. SloatORCiD, P. K. Thornton, Mario HerreroORCiD
URN:urn:nbn:de:bvb:384-opus4-1081345
Frontdoor URLhttps://opus.bibliothek.uni-augsburg.de/opus4/108134
ISSN:1748-9326OPAC
Parent Title (English):Environmental Research Letters
Publisher:IOP Publishing
Place of publication:Bristol
Type:Article
Language:English
Year of first Publication:2020
Publishing Institution:Universität Augsburg
Release Date:2023/10/16
Tag:Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health; General Environmental Science; Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
Volume:15
Issue:4
First Page:044021
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab7395
Institutes:Fakultät für Angewandte Informatik
Fakultätsübergreifende Institute und Einrichtungen
Fakultät für Angewandte Informatik / Institut für Geographie
Fakultätsübergreifende Institute und Einrichtungen / Zentrum für Klimaresilienz
Fakultät für Angewandte Informatik / Institut für Geographie / Lehrstuhl für Klimaresilienz von Kulturökosystemen
Dewey Decimal Classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften
Licence (German):CC-BY 4.0: Creative Commons: Namensnennung (mit Print on Demand)