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A Bayesian spatiotemporal model for prevalence estimation of a VRE outbreak in a tertiary care hospital

  • Background: There was a nosocomial outbreak of vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) at the hospital between 1 st January 2018 and 31st July 2020. The goals of this study were to describe weekly prevalence, and to identify possible effects of the introduction of selected infection control measures. Methods: A room-centric analysis of 12 floors (243 rooms) of the main hospital building was undertaken, including data on 37,558 patients over 22,072 person-weeks for the first 2 years of the outbreak (2018e2019). Poisson Bayesian hierarchical models were fitted to estimate prevalence per room and per week, including both spatial and temporal randomeffects terms. Results: Exploratory data analysis revealed significant variability in prevalence between departments and floors, along with sporadic spatial and temporal clustering during colo- nization ‘flare-ups’. The oncology department experienced slightly higher prevalence over the 104-week study period [adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR)Background: There was a nosocomial outbreak of vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) at the hospital between 1 st January 2018 and 31st July 2020. The goals of this study were to describe weekly prevalence, and to identify possible effects of the introduction of selected infection control measures. Methods: A room-centric analysis of 12 floors (243 rooms) of the main hospital building was undertaken, including data on 37,558 patients over 22,072 person-weeks for the first 2 years of the outbreak (2018e2019). Poisson Bayesian hierarchical models were fitted to estimate prevalence per room and per week, including both spatial and temporal randomeffects terms. Results: Exploratory data analysis revealed significant variability in prevalence between departments and floors, along with sporadic spatial and temporal clustering during colo- nization ‘flare-ups’. The oncology department experienced slightly higher prevalence over the 104-week study period [adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) 4.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.6e8.9; P<0.001; compared with general medicine], as did both the cardiac surgery (aPR 3.8, 95% CI 2.0e7.3; P<0.001) and abdominal surgery (aPR 3.7, 95% CI 1.8e7.6; P<0.001) departments. Estimated peak prevalence was reached in July 2018, at which point a number of new infection control measures (including the daily disinfection of rooms and room cleaning with ultraviolet light upon patient discharge) were introduced that resulted in decreasing prevalence (aPR 0.89 per week, 95% CI 0.87e0.91; P<0.001). Conclusion: Relatively straightforward but personnel-intensive cleaning with disinfectants and ultraviolet light provided tangible benefits in getting the outbreak under control. Despite additional complexity, Bayesian hierarchical models provide a more flexible platform to study transmission dynamics.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Author:A. Atkinson, B. Ellenberger, V. Piezzi, T. Kaspar, O. Endrich, Alexander B. LeichtleORCiDGND, M. Zwahlen, J. Marschall
URN:urn:nbn:de:bvb:384-opus4-1248323
Frontdoor URLhttps://opus.bibliothek.uni-augsburg.de/opus4/124832
ISSN:0195-6701OPAC
Parent Title (English):Journal of Hospital Infection
Publisher:Elsevier BV
Place of publication:Amsterdam
Type:Article
Language:English
Year of first Publication:2022
Publishing Institution:Universität Augsburg
Release Date:2025/09/01
Volume:122
First Page:108
Last Page:114
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhin.2021.12.024
Institutes:Medizinische Fakultät
Medizinische Fakultät / Universitätsklinikum
Medizinische Fakultät / Professur für Laboratoriumsmedizin
Dewey Decimal Classification:6 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften / 61 Medizin und Gesundheit / 610 Medizin und Gesundheit
Licence (German):License LogoCC-BY-NC-ND 4.0: Creative Commons: Namensnennung - Nicht kommerziell - Keine Bearbeitung (mit Print on Demand)