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Hedging against inflation: housing vs. equity

  • To which extent do equity and housing hedge against inflation? Despite an extensive literature, there is only little consensus. This paper presents new evidence from the Jordà-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database, which covers return rates on housing and equity as well as consumer price indices of 16 developed countries from 1870 - 2015. The results depend on the time horizon and period considered. Within one, five, and ten years housing hedges, at least partly, against inflation and the hedge has been better in the post-war period. In the long run housing provides an excessive hedge in the whole sample and a perfect hedge in the post-war period. Equity provides no hedge within one-year in the whole sample period and the returns tend to decrease with inflation in the post-war period. The hedge improves slightly with a longer time horizon and is perfect in the long run in the post-war period. Thus, housing is, at least weakly, superior in hedging against inflation. The results are robustTo which extent do equity and housing hedge against inflation? Despite an extensive literature, there is only little consensus. This paper presents new evidence from the Jordà-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database, which covers return rates on housing and equity as well as consumer price indices of 16 developed countries from 1870 - 2015. The results depend on the time horizon and period considered. Within one, five, and ten years housing hedges, at least partly, against inflation and the hedge has been better in the post-war period. In the long run housing provides an excessive hedge in the whole sample and a perfect hedge in the post-war period. Equity provides no hedge within one-year in the whole sample period and the returns tend to decrease with inflation in the post-war period. The hedge improves slightly with a longer time horizon and is perfect in the long run in the post-war period. Thus, housing is, at least weakly, superior in hedging against inflation. The results are robust to a non-housing consumption price index and an asset price appreciation approach.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Author:Daniel FehrleGND
URN:urn:nbn:de:bvb:384-opus4-887326
Frontdoor URLhttps://opus.bibliothek.uni-augsburg.de/opus4/88732
URL:https://vwl.wiwi.uni-augsburg.de/vwl/institut/paper/342.pdf
Series (Serial Number):Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsreihe (342)
Publisher:Volkswirtschaftliches Institut, Universität Augsburg
Place of publication:Augsburg
Type:Working Paper
Language:English
Year of first Publication:2021
Publishing Institution:Universität Augsburg
Release Date:2021/08/24
Tag:JEL: C22, C23, E31, E44, G11, N10
Pagenumber:61
Institutes:Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät
Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre
Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre / Lehrstuhl für Empirische Makroökonomik
Dewey Decimal Classification:3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft
Journals:Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsreihe
Licence (German):Deutsches Urheberrecht