Endogene Erwartungsbildung und Marktstimmungen auf Basis des Zustands-Präferenz-Ansatzes

  • On the basis of the State Preference Model endogenous adaption prozesses of heterogenous individuals lead to market sentiments and generate switching „bull“ and „bear“ markets. Individual bottoming and topping prices are anticipated, based on sophisticated analysis of long run considerations. Actual prices near the bottoming (topping) price are reflected in a more optimistic (pessimistic) attitude that fosters (weakens) the strength of the desired investors’ demand. The decision itself depends on the individual’s belief in their anticipated prices. A formalism is introduced which describes the formation of expectations about the market price in the next period The possible spread between the general mood and the decision itself generates different degrees of market sentiments. Numerical experiments show that extreme changes in these sentiments generate alternating periods of generally rising or generaly falling prices while the risk structure predominantly effects the fluctuatingOn the basis of the State Preference Model endogenous adaption prozesses of heterogenous individuals lead to market sentiments and generate switching „bull“ and „bear“ markets. Individual bottoming and topping prices are anticipated, based on sophisticated analysis of long run considerations. Actual prices near the bottoming (topping) price are reflected in a more optimistic (pessimistic) attitude that fosters (weakens) the strength of the desired investors’ demand. The decision itself depends on the individual’s belief in their anticipated prices. A formalism is introduced which describes the formation of expectations about the market price in the next period The possible spread between the general mood and the decision itself generates different degrees of market sentiments. Numerical experiments show that extreme changes in these sentiments generate alternating periods of generally rising or generaly falling prices while the risk structure predominantly effects the fluctuating nature of stock market prices.show moreshow less

Download full text files

Export metadata

Statistics

Number of document requests

Additional Services

Share in Twitter Search Google Scholar
Metadaten
Author:Jörg SommerGND, Friedrich KuglerGND
URN:urn:nbn:de:bvb:384-opus4-243839
Frontdoor URLhttps://opus.bibliothek.uni-augsburg.de/opus4/24383
Series (Serial Number):Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsreihe (160)
Publisher:Volkswirtschaftliches Institut, Universität Augsburg
Place of publication:Augsburg
Type:Working Paper
Language:German
Year of first Publication:1997
Publishing Institution:Universität Augsburg
Release Date:2017/07/21
Tag:JEL: D84, G11
Pagenumber:25
Institutes:Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät
Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre
Schriftenreihen / Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsreihe
Dewey Decimal Classification:3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft
Journals:Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsreihe
Licence (German):Deutsches Urheberrecht