Improved bioclimatic variables from regional climate models: a comparative analysis of three classic bias adjustment methods and a novel adjustment approach

  • Bioclimatic variables (BCVs) play an important role in understanding ecological dynamics and species distribution under climate variability and change. This research assesses the effectiveness of three bias adjustment methods—Linear Scaling (LSC), Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM), and Quantile Data Mapping (QDM)—on improving BCVs from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) over Europe, with ERA5-Land as reference dataset. Among the methods tested, EQM slightly stands out for its ability to accurately adjust temperature and precipitation variables, as well as BCVs. However, the different with the two other bias-correction methods is marginal. RCMs were not effective in representing interactive BCVs, especially the mean temperature of the wettest quarter (BIO8) and the mean temperature of the driest quarter (BIO9) and significant residual bias remains after the application of bias adjustment methods. A key innovation of this study was the application of a static quarter/month adjustment inBioclimatic variables (BCVs) play an important role in understanding ecological dynamics and species distribution under climate variability and change. This research assesses the effectiveness of three bias adjustment methods—Linear Scaling (LSC), Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM), and Quantile Data Mapping (QDM)—on improving BCVs from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) over Europe, with ERA5-Land as reference dataset. Among the methods tested, EQM slightly stands out for its ability to accurately adjust temperature and precipitation variables, as well as BCVs. However, the different with the two other bias-correction methods is marginal. RCMs were not effective in representing interactive BCVs, especially the mean temperature of the wettest quarter (BIO8) and the mean temperature of the driest quarter (BIO9) and significant residual bias remains after the application of bias adjustment methods. A key innovation of this study was the application of a static quarter/month adjustment in conjunction with EQM, which significantly improved the representation of interactive BCVs. This novel approach effectively addressed seasonal and spatial discrepancies, aligning modeled climate patterns more closely with observed data, thereby improving the model’s ecological relevance. The finding of this study contributes to a more nuanced understanding of ecological dynamics under climate change, offering valuable insights for species distribution modelling based on BCVs.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Author:Freddy Bangelesa, Christian MerkenschlagerORCiDGND, Elke HertigORCiDGND, Heiko Paeth
URN:urn:nbn:de:bvb:384-opus4-1283378
Frontdoor URLhttps://opus.bibliothek.uni-augsburg.de/opus4/128337
ISSN:0177-798XOPAC
ISSN:1434-4483OPAC
Parent Title (English):Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Publisher:Springer
Place of publication:Berlin
Type:Article
Language:English
Date of first Publication:2026/02/23
Publishing Institution:Universität Augsburg
Release Date:2026/03/03
Volume:157
Issue:3
First Page:167
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06039-8
Institutes:Medizinische Fakultät
Medizinische Fakultät / Professur für Regionalen Klimawandel und Gesundheit
Dewey Decimal Classification:6 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften / 61 Medizin und Gesundheit / 610 Medizin und Gesundheit
Licence (German):CC-BY 4.0: Creative Commons: Namensnennung