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Introduction
In Multiple Sclerosis (MS), patients´ characteristics and (bio)markers that reliably predict the individual disease prognosis at disease onset are lacking. Cohort studies allow a close follow-up of MS histories and a thorough phenotyping of patients. Therefore, a multicenter cohort study was initiated to implement a wide spectrum of data and (bio)markers in newly diagnosed patients.
Methods
ProVal-MS (Prospective study to validate a multidimensional decision score that predicts treatment outcome at 24 months in untreated patients with clinically isolated syndrome or early Relapsing–Remitting-MS) is a prospective cohort study in patients with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) or Relapsing–Remitting (RR)-MS (McDonald 2017 criteria), diagnosed within the last two years, conducted at five academic centers in Southern Germany. The collection of clinical, laboratory, imaging, and paraclinical data as well as biosamples is harmonized across centers. The primary goal is to validate (discrimination and calibration) the previously published DIFUTURE MS-Treatment Decision score (MS-TDS). The score supports clinical decision-making regarding the options of early (within 6 months after study baseline) platform medication (Interferon beta, glatiramer acetate, dimethyl/diroximel fumarate, teriflunomide), or no immediate treatment (> 6 months after baseline) of patients with early RR-MS and CIS by predicting the probability of new or enlarging lesions in cerebral magnetic resonance images (MRIs) between 6 and 24 months. Further objectives are refining the MS-TDS score and providing data to identify new markers reflecting disease course and severity. The project also provides a technical evaluation of the ProVal-MS cohort within the IT-infrastructure of the DIFUTURE consortium (Data Integration for Future Medicine) and assesses the efficacy of the data sharing techniques developed.
Perspective
Clinical cohorts provide the infrastructure to discover and to validate relevant disease-specific findings. A successful validation of the MS-TDS will add a new clinical decision tool to the armamentarium of practicing MS neurologists from which newly diagnosed MS patients may take advantage.
Background: Glatiramer acetate (GA) is a well-tolerated treatment for multiple sclerosis (MS) and comparable in its efficacy to high-dose interferon beta (IFN). As a lack of validated treatment response biomarkers for MS hampers progress in personalised treatment, the study goal was to search for biomarkers of a successful treatment response utilising the known observation of T-cell expansions after GA treatment.
Methods: T-cell receptor beta chain (TRB) sequencing was performed in 3021 patients with MS: a discovery cohort of 1627 patients with MS, 204 of whom had previously been treated with GA, and then validated in 1394 patients with MS, 424 of whom had previously been treated with GA. Clinical data from 1987 patients with MS treated with GA or IFN and available HLA information from the NationMS, ACP, EPIC, BIONAT, and CombiRx trial cohorts were used for a subsequent analysis.
Findings: Common GA-associated TRB expansions were exclusively detected in HLA-A∗03:01 or in HLA-DRB1∗15:01 backgrounds, within CD8+ effector- or CD4+ central-memory T cells. Both sets of common sequences clonally expanded after GA treatment in a first validation cohort and predicted GA exposure in two further validation cohorts. To evaluate whether restriction of public TRBs to only two HLA alleles is also associated with GA's clinical efficacy, we analysed five cohorts of patients with MS for a potential benefit of the two HLAs concerning the GA response compared to IFN. We consistently found positive interactions with HLA-A∗03:01. This included a relative reduction in relapse risk compared to IFN in HLA-A∗03:01 carriers of 33% (CombiRx: GA + IFN arm: HR 0.67 [95% CI: 0.47-0.96], p = 0.0269) and 34% (CombiRx: GA arm: HR 0.66 [95% CI: 0.45-0.98], p = 0.0377), and in risk to first relapse of 63% (NationMS: HR 0.37 [95% CI: 0.16-0.88], p = 0.0246), but no positive association with DRB1∗15:01.
Interpretation: HLA-A∗03:01 carrying patients with MS specifically benefit from GA treatment and GA significantly outperforms IFN in these patients. Therefore, determining HLA-A∗03:01 status before choosing a platform treatment for MS, would allow for a personalised treatment decision between GA and IFN.
