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Climate and land-use change are key drivers of environmental degradation in the Anthropocene, but too little is known about their interactive effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Long-term data on biodiversity trends are currently lacking. Furthermore, previous ecological studies have rarely considered climate and land use in a joint design, did not achieve variable independence or lost statistical power by not covering the full range of environmental gradients.
Here, we introduce a multi-scale space-for-time study design to disentangle effects of climate and land use on biodiversity and ecosystem services. The site selection approach coupled extensive GIS-based exploration (i.e. using a Geographic information system) and correlation heatmaps with a crossed and nested design covering regional, landscape and local scales. Its implementation in Bavaria (Germany) resulted in a set of study plots that maximise the potential range and independence of environmental variables at different spatial scales.
Stratifying the state of Bavaria into five climate zones (reference period 1981–2010) and three prevailing land-use types, that is, near-natural, agriculture and urban, resulted in 60 study regions (5.8 × 5.8 km quadrants) covering a mean annual temperature gradient of 5.6–9.8°C and a spatial extent of ~310 × 310 km. Within these regions, we nested 180 study plots located in contrasting local land-use types, that is, forests, grasslands, arable land or settlement (local climate gradient 4.5–10°C). This approach achieved low correlations between climate and land use (proportional cover) at the regional and landscape scale with |r ≤ 0.33| and |r ≤ 0.29| respectively. Furthermore, using correlation heatmaps for local plot selection reduced potentially confounding relationships between landscape composition and configuration for plots located in forests, arable land and settlements.
The suggested design expands upon previous research in covering a significant range of environmental gradients and including a diversity of dominant land-use types at different scales within different climatic contexts. It allows independent assessment of the relative contribution of multi-scale climate and land use on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Understanding potential interdependencies among global change drivers is essential to develop effective restoration and mitigation strategies against biodiversity decline, especially in expectation of future climatic changes. Importantly, this study also provides a baseline for long-term ecological monitoring programs.
Climate and land use are major determinants of biodiversity, and declines in species richness in cold and human exploited landscapes can be caused by lower rates of biotic interactions. Deadwood fungi and bacteria interact strongly with their hosts due to long-lasting evolutionary trajectories. However, how rates of biotic interactions (specialization) change with temperature and land-use intensity are unknown for both microbial groups. We hypothesize a decrease in species richness and specialization of communities with decreasing temperature and increasing land use intensity while controlling for precipitation. We used a full-factorial nested design to disentangle land use at habitat and landscape scale and temperature spanning an area of 300 × 300 km in Germany. We exposed four deadwood objects representing the main tree species in Central Europe (beech, oak, spruce, pine) in 175 study plots. Overall, we found that fungal and bacterial richness, community composition and specialization were weakly related to temperature and land use. Fungal richness was slightly higher in near-natural than in urban landscapes. Bacterial richness was positively associated with mean annual temperature, negatively associated with local temperature and highest in grassland habitats. Bacterial richness was positively related to the covariate mean annual precipitation. We found strong effects of host-tree identity on species richness and community composition. A generally high level of fungal host-tree specialization might explain the weak response to temperature and land use. Effects of host-tree identity and specialization were more pronounced in fungi. We suggest that host tree changes caused by land use and climate change will be more important for fungal communities, while changes in climate will affect bacterial communities more directly. Contrasting responses of the two taxonomic groups suggest a reorganization of deadwood microbial communities, which might have further consequences on diversity and decomposition in the Anthropocene.
