- Smallholder rainfed agriculture in West Africa is vital for regional food security and livelihoods, yet it remains highly vulnerable to climate change. Persistently low crop yields, driven by high rainfall variability and frequent climate hazards, highlight the urgent need for evidence-based adaptation strategies. This study assesses the impact of climate change on maize yields in Burkina Faso (BF) using a calibrated AquaCrop model and recent climate projections. AquaCrop was calibrated using district-level maize yields from 2009 to 2022 and a genetic optimization technique. Climate change impacts were then simulated using two socioeconomic scenarios (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5) for the periods 2016–2045 and 2046–2075. Climate projections show that Burkina Faso will experience temperature increases of 0.5–3 °C and decreased precipitation, with the most severe rainfall reductions in the country’s southern half, including the crucial southwestern agricultural zone. Maize yields willSmallholder rainfed agriculture in West Africa is vital for regional food security and livelihoods, yet it remains highly vulnerable to climate change. Persistently low crop yields, driven by high rainfall variability and frequent climate hazards, highlight the urgent need for evidence-based adaptation strategies. This study assesses the impact of climate change on maize yields in Burkina Faso (BF) using a calibrated AquaCrop model and recent climate projections. AquaCrop was calibrated using district-level maize yields from 2009 to 2022 and a genetic optimization technique. Climate change impacts were then simulated using two socioeconomic scenarios (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5) for the periods 2016–2045 and 2046–2075. Climate projections show that Burkina Faso will experience temperature increases of 0.5–3 °C and decreased precipitation, with the most severe rainfall reductions in the country’s southern half, including the crucial southwestern agricultural zone. Maize yields will predominantly decrease across the country, with projected losses reaching 20% in most regions. The southwestern agricultural zone, critical for national food production, faces substantial yield decreases of up to 40% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. In light of these findings, future research should employ the calibrated AquaCrop model to evaluate specific combinations of adaptation strategies. These strategies include optimized planting windows, field-level water management practices, and optimal fertilizer application schedules, providing actionable guidance for smallholder farmers in West Africa.…
