Open Access

Ronja Steinhauser, Belinda Merkle, Johanna Ott, Martin Daumiller, Markus Dresel, Oliver Dickhäuser, Stefan Janke

• Undertaking a PhD is a personal commitment that involves considerable uncertainty, and many doctoral candidates face significant challenges along the way. However, few studies have examined pre-PhD predictors of later success. We propose that both the extent to which PhD candidates perceive their needs to be met by the supplies of a PhD (needs–supplies fit) and the extent to which their abilities match the demands of a PhD (demands–abilities fit) are promising predictors. Crucially, both forms of fit may be forecasted by prospective doctoral candidates even before entering a PhD program and may serve as predictors of subsequent doctoral success. We examined these relationships in two field studies in Germany. In Study 1 we assessed the relationship between perceived needs-supplies fit and demands-abilities fit with doctoral success through cross-sectional data from 812 candidates during their PhD. Results indicated that higher needs-supplies fit was associated with higher jobUndertaking a PhD is a personal commitment that involves considerable uncertainty, and many doctoral candidates face significant challenges along the way. However, few studies have examined pre-PhD predictors of later success. We propose that both the extent to which PhD candidates perceive their needs to be met by the supplies of a PhD (needs–supplies fit) and the extent to which their abilities match the demands of a PhD (demands–abilities fit) are promising predictors. Crucially, both forms of fit may be forecasted by prospective doctoral candidates even before entering a PhD program and may serve as predictors of subsequent doctoral success. We examined these relationships in two field studies in Germany. In Study 1 we assessed the relationship between perceived needs-supplies fit and demands-abilities fit with doctoral success through cross-sectional data from 812 candidates during their PhD. Results indicated that higher needs-supplies fit was associated with higher job satisfaction and lower dropout intention, while higher demands-abilities fit was associated with higher job satisfaction, perceived progress and lower dropout intention. Study 2 examined whether prospective doctoral candidates’ forecasts of needs-supplies and demands-abilities fit could predict later doctoral success during the first PhD year in a longitudinal sample of 172 candidates. Needs-supplies fit forecasts predicted later job satisfaction and dropout intention, while demands-abilities fit did not robustly predict success outcomes. The findings provide initial support that fit forecasts may support prospective doctoral candidates and those advising them in making more informed decisions about whether to pursue a PhD.…